The fall of Assad: A predetermined outcome

By the time the dust settled, Syria was under the control of a coalition of rebels, Damascus was in their hands, and Assad had fled to Russia. The speed and intensity of the collapse of Syria has shocked the world, but for Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Mordechai Kedar, a member of the “Securityists” movement and a prominent expert on the Middle East, it was not unexpected.

Dr. Kedar, whose writings on the legitimacy of the Assad regime date back decades, argues that the collapse of Syria was foreseeable. “Syria is a hollow country,” Kedar states, as “the people never believed in the regime, and the army was unwilling to die for it.”

His 2005 book Asad in Search of Legitimacy chronicles the Baathist regime’s fruitless efforts to establish itself as a legitimate governing force in Syria. In his view, the Assad family never earned the legitimacy of their people, ruling instead through force and repression.

This lack of legitimacy, Dr. Kedar explains, can be traced back to 1966, when the minority Alawite regime took over Syria. To the Sunni Muslim majority, the Alawites were considered infidels. The Alawite rulers, recognizing the lack of public support for their regime, understood the necessity of establishing an iron-fisted dictatorship instead to secure their grip on power.

The suppression of the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1980s, including the infamous Hama Massacre in 1982, solidified the Assad family’s reputation for merciless repression. However, Kedar argues that this strategy was always destined to fail. The regime’s foundation was inherently unstable because it never had popular support.

The regime’s inevitable collapse of the regime was a consequence of this lack of legitimacy. Still, the speed at which the rebels took control was aided by more than just internal dissent. The timing was also crucial. The weakened state of the Assad regime, following Hezbollah’s war against Israel, had left it vulnerable. The opposition forces, many of whom had been exiled to Idlib for years, were then poised to strike the moment the regime’s attention wavered.

Rebel groups, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, linked to Al-Qaeda), then launched a surprise offensive that quickly gained momentum. Their rapid victories in Aleppo, Hama, and Homs were followed by uprisings from Druze and Bedouin populations in the south, culminating in the fall of Damascus. Despite their ideological differences, the rebels managed to unite to overthrow Assad. Yet, not all rebel groups share the same agenda. Some moderate groups even express a willingness to work with Israel.

One rebel leader even declared that the true victory would be when Israeli flags fly over the Iranian embassies in Damascus and Amman. This sentiment reveals an interesting dynamic in the rebellion: the desire to eliminate Iranian and Hezbollah influence in the region.

However, while the fall of the Assad regime may seem like a victory for freedom and democracy, the future of Syria is uncertain. Syria remains a deeply divided country, with ethnic, religious, and tribal groups historically at odds. For this reason, if Syria falls into the hands of Islamist groups, it could disintegrate into chaos. However, such a scenario may be preferable to a unified Iran-backed Syria under Assad.

Israel is preparing for any outcome following the regime collapse, including the rise of extremist groups. The IDF has concentrated forces in the strategically vital Golan Heights and strengthened its positions on the Syrian border in anticipation of potential fallout.

The uncertainty surrounding Syria’s future has already prompted Israel to take preventative measures as Israel would prefer to deal with ISIS-style militias over the strategic threat posed by an Iran-backed regime. Israel cannot afford to be caught unprepared, as it was on October 7, 2023, when a surprise attack from Hezbollah put the country on high alert.

While the outcome of the rebellion in Syria is yet to be determined, the fall of the Assad regime was almost inevitable. Syria’s lack of national unity, its sectarian divisions, and the regime’s lack of legitimacy created a powder keg that only needed the right spark to ignite. What follows, however, remains unpredictable.

Whether Syria will emerge as a modern, liberal state or a failed, fragmented one remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the collapse of the Assad regime marks a turning point in Middle East security, with significant implications for the broader region.