Global winners and losers of Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday signed an order that would impose 25% tariffs, targeting imports of steel and aluminum.

The two metals are vital components in various industries, including transportation, construction and packaging. The levies will take effect on March 4.

Trump had said on Sunday that he was planning on imposing these tariffs, which spurred a rally in shares of steel producers on Monday, including Cleveland-Cliffs, Nucor and U.S. Steel.

Here’s a look at the biggest potential winners and losers under the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the biggest winner of the trade tariffs is likely to be the U.S.

U.S. steel imports have declined substantially over the past decade, official data shows, falling 35% between 2014 and 2024 — despite a 2.5% annual uptick to 26.2 million metric tons last year. Many attribute this to tariffs introduced under Trump’s first administration.

America’s aluminum imports, however, have risen 14% over the past decade, with U.S. exports of the metal rising progressively since 2020.

On Monday, James Campbell, analyst at commodity pricing consultancy CRU, told CNBC that he expected the potential tariffs to have varying effects on the U.S. over time.

“At the start, this could damage demand,” he said. “In the longer term, we can see investment coming through.”

Since Trump’s first wave of tariffs in 2018, CRU’s Campbell said the U.S. had seen investment rise in both the steel and aluminum sectors.

During his first presidency, Trump slapped tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, Mexico and the European Union. His administration also placed volume limits on imports from various other nations, including South Korea, Argentina and Australia.

A later report from the Congressional Research Service found that in the first five months of the policy, the Trump administration collected more than $1.4 billion in revenue.

In 2024, the U.S. imported steel from 79 countries and aluminum from 89 countries. Those imports had a combined total value of just over $49 billion, according to government data.

The two countries are among the biggest exporters of steel and aluminum to the United States, so are likely to be hurt by the tariffs if they come into effect — even after being granted temporary respite from blanket duties on all their exports into America.

Germany is also a big steel exporter to the U.S. and is likely to be negatively affected by the tariffs.

However, Thyssenkrupp, one of Europe’s largest steelmakers, told CNBC on Monday it expects “very limited impact” on its business if the U.S. levies additional tariffs on steel and aluminum.

The German company said Europe remains its primary market for steel with only “high-quality” niche products exported to the U.S. where it maintains a “good market position.”

“The majority of thyssenkrupp’s sales in the U.S. come from the trading business and the automotive supply business,” a spokesperson said via email. “In principle, Thyssenkrupp is well positioned in these businesses in the US with a significant share of local manufacturing for the local market. Much of the production for U.S. customers takes place within the U.S..”

South Korea, Vietnam and Japan are also among the countries likely to see their metals hit with new import tariffs if Trump goes ahead with the policy.

Imports from Vietnam grew by more than 140% from the previous year, according to CNBC’s analysis of U.S. trade data. Taiwan also exported 75% more steel to the U.S. in 2024 compared with the previous year.