Southern California could experience a “life-threatening, destructive” windstorm this week, with forecasters warning of major fire risks unusual for January and potential power outages.
The gusts are expected to intensify on Tuesday into Wednesday, potentially reaching 80mph (129 km/h) across much of Los Angeles county and Ventura to the north, according to a National Weather Service alert on Monday. In the foothills and mountains, there could be isolated winds over 100mph (160km/h).
“Scattered downed trees and power outages are likely, in addition to rapid fire growth and extreme behavior with any fire starts,” the weather service office for Los Angeles said on X. “Areas not typically windy will be impacted.”
The weather service warned of knocked over big rigs and motorhomes, dangerous sea conditions off the coasts of LA and Orange county, and potentially significant delays at local airports. Public safety power shutoffs are being considered for nearly 300,000 customers across the region, according to Southern California Edison. Outages could last for hours or days.
By January, southern California has often experienced enough rain that fire season is considered over, but the start of what is typically the rainy season has been very dry this year, making the region vulnerable.
Recent destructive fires have left areas parched and more at risk. Winds hitting tinder-dry vegetation could create “extreme fire conditions”, including in the footprint of last month’s wind-driven Franklin fire, which damaged or destroyed 48 structures, mostly homes, in and around Malibu. While there were mass evacuations in the area, widely shared videos show students at a local university sheltering on campus as the fire raged nearby – a strategy officials said was safer than navigating winding, canyon roads.
The blaze was one of nearly 8,000 wildfires that scorched more than 1m acres (more than 404,600 hectares) in the Golden State last year.
Recent dry winds, including the notorious Santa Anas, have contributed to warmer than average temperatures in southern California. But in the northern part of the state, there have been multiple storms.
The “extreme precipitation disparity” between the northern and southern regions is expected to persist throughout the winter, according to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California, Los Angeles and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Swain wrote on Saturday in an update on his website that the northern California weather systems “have been relatively warm storms, too, maintaining overall warmer than average temperatures across nearly all of California in recent weeks”.
Southern California has not seen more than 0.1in (0.25cm) of rain since early May. Much of the region has fallen into moderate drought conditions, according to the US Drought Monitor.
The upcoming winds will act as an “atmospheric blow dryer” for vegetation, bringing a long period of fire risk that could extend into the more populated lower hills and valleys, Swain said during a Monday livestream.
Portions of San Diego county have seen the driest start to the season – and driest nine-month period overall – in over 150 years, Swain wrote.
In November, a wind-driven wildfire tore through rural and residential communities in Ventura, the county currently under warning, destroying more than 200 structures, including homes and businesses.
Large wildfires rarely break out this time of year in California. Since 2016, there have been a handful of small January fires in the state, though in 2014, one fire east of LA destroyed several homes, the LA Times reported.
The red-flag warning for fire conditions issued this week goes through Thursday and could be extended to Friday. Rich Thompson, a weather service meteorologist, told the paper this kind of alert was unusual for this point in the season, saying: “Given the widespread nature of the winds we’re expecting, it’s a very high level of concern everywhere. From the mountains to the coast … be ready to take action if a fire does break out during this event.”
There are also concerns of a potential “mountain wave” event, where rapid gusts drop down the slopes, leading to brief bursts of extremely strong winds, according to Thompson. Wind blasts of that nature caused significant damage in 2011.
The climate crisis has broadly made the fire seasons last for increasingly long periods, which has given officials shorter windows in between for mitigation efforts.